Jack Straw Yesterday I argued that David Miliband is revisiting the prospect of leadership in light of Gordon Brown’s disappointing performance; what I didn’t address though was the question of when Miliband will dash for the crown.  The answer in my opinion is not just yet. 

Timing is everything.  The next leader of the Labour Party will not be elected to lead the country, but rather to manage the party’s decline; to limit the number of Labour MPs ejected from parliament at the next general election.  That leader is not David Miliband, it’s someone older, someone less polished, someone a lot like Jack Straw; a man neither massively liked, nor disliked by the public at large. 

Of course such a passing of the torch, from Brown (unwillingly) to caretaker will only happen if May 1st turns out to be a rout.  But in that eventuality my money’s on Straw. 

So when will Miliband run?  A lot depends on the lie of the land after any general election, but provided the decline is managed well it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see Miliband take over as leader directly after the caretaker.  Whatever the case me be though I for one will be keeping a close eye on everything Miliband says and does in the weeks and months ahead.