I argued quite some time ago that David Miliband is stirring up a challenge for the leadership, however I’ve also argued that he will not stand in the contest to succeed Brown (preferring instead to succeed the successor to Brown, the caretaker).

Speculation in recent days however would have it however that David Miliband is positioning himself for the leadership.  I would argue though that such speculation, whilst playing directly into Miliband’s hands, does not reflect the reality of what is going on.  Instead I would suggest that Miliband is laying is creating the environment for a leadership bid; one he won’t take part in. 

With a general election at most two years away Miliband is smart enough to see the writing on the wall (writing that’s all the clearer if you consider the fact a new leader would provoke an earlier election), and understands politics is a long-term game. 

Miliband can afford to bide his time for a few years, before ultimately standing as the candidate to vanquish the Conservative Party.